Estimating the uncertainty in the modelling of magnetic fields induced by ocean general circulation

As sea-water flows through the geomagnetic field, electric fields are generated, which in turn induce secondary magnetic fields. These oceanic induced magnetic fields provide the potential to indirectly observe the ocean general circulation and may be utilized by data assimilation. The modelling of the oceanic induced magnetic field is affected by various uncertainties that originate from errors in the input data and from the applied model itself. The amount of aggregated uncertainties and their effect on the modelling of electromagnetic induction in the ocean is unknown. To investigate the uncertainty in the modelling of motional induction, ensemble simulations with an ocean general circulation model and an electromagnetic induction model are performed on the basis of different error scenarios. This approach allows to estimate both the spatial distribution and temporal variation of the uncertainty. The largest uncertainty in the motionally induced magnetic field occurs in the area of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. Local maxima reach values of up to 0.7 nano Tesla (nT). The estimated global annual mean uncertainty in the motionally induced magnetic field ranges from 0.1 to 0.4 nT. Compared to the strength of anomalies of the motionally induced magnetic field, the relative amount of uncertainty reaches up to 30 %. The largest relative uncertainty occurs on the northern hemisphere. The major source of uncertainty is found to be introduced by wind stress from the atmospheric forcing of the ocean model. In addition, the temporal evolution of the uncertainty in the motionally induced magnetic field shows distinct seasonal variations. Specific regions are identified which are robust with respect to the introduced uncertainties.