Plastic and evolutionary responses of plankton to environmental change are influenced by drift in ocean currents

The analytical framework for understanding fluctuations in ocean habitats has typically involved a Eulerian view. However, for marine microbes, this framework does not take into account their transport in dynamic seascapes, implying that our current view of change for these critical organisms may be inaccurate. Using a modelling approach, we show that generations of upper ocean microbes experience along-trajectory temperature variability up to 10°C greater than seasonal fluctuations estimated in a static frame, and that this variability depends strongly on location. These findings demonstrate that drift in ocean currents contributes to environmental fluctuation experienced by microbes and suggests that microbial populations may be adapted to upstream rather than local conditions. In an empirical test, we demonstrate that microbes in a warm, poleward flowing western boundary current (East Australian Current) have a different thermal response curve to microbes in coastal water at the same latitude (p < 0.05). Our findings suggest that advection has the capacity to influence microbial community assemblies such that water masses with relatively small thermal fluctuations select for thermal specialists, and communities with broad temperature performance curves are found in locations where ocean currents are strong or along-trajectory temperature variation is high.