FROM RESEARCH TO OPERATIONS: TRANSITIONING NOAA’S LAKE ERIE HARMFUL ALGAL BLOOM FORECAST SYSTEM

A key priority of NOAA’s Harmful Algal Bloom Operational Forecast System (HAB-OFS) is to leverage the Ecological Forecasting Roadmap to systematically transition to operations scientifically mature HAB forecasts in regions of the country where there is a strong user need identified and an operational framework can be supported. While in the demonstration phase, the Lake Erie HAB forecast has proven its utility. Over the next two years, NOAA will be transitioning the Lake Erie HAB forecast to operations with an initial operating capability established in the HAB OFS’ operational infrastructure by the 2016 bloom season.

 

Blooms of cyanobacteria are a recurring problem in Lake Erie, and the dominant bloom forming species, Microcystis aeruginosa, produces a toxin called microcystin that is poisonous to humans, livestock and pets. Once the toxins have contaminated the source water used for drinking water, it is costly for public water suppliers to remove them. As part of the Lake Erie HAB forecast demonstration, NOAA has provided information regarding the cyanobacterial blooms in a biweekly Experimental HAB Bulletin, which includes information about the current and forecasted distribution, toxicity, potential for vertical mixing or scum formation, mixing of the water column, and predictions of bloom decline. Coastal resource managers, public water suppliers and public health officials use the Experimental HAB Bulletins to respond to and mitigate the impacts of cyanobacterial blooms. The transition to operations will benefit stakeholders through ensuring that future Lake Erie HAB forecast products are sustained, systematic, reliable, and robust. Once operational, the forecasts will continue to be assessed and improvements will be made based on the results of emerging scientific research. In addition, the lessons learned from the Lake Erie transition will be used to streamline the process for future HAB forecasts presently in development.