High resolution modeling of tropical cyclones-ocean interactions in the South-West Indian Ocean.

The ocean surface can cool by several degrees during the passage of a tropical cyclone (TC) due to the extreme winds associated with. This cooling decreases the ocean-to-atmosphere heat and moisture supply which can modulate the TC intensity. Hence, atmospheric models need an accurate description of the sea surface temperature (SST) under TCs to correctly predict their intensities. This SST evolution and its feedback on the TC evolution can only be captured by ocean-atmosphere coupled models.

In order to evaluate this potential benefit on TC forecasts in the South West Indian Ocean, Mercator-Ocean has developed a new coupled regional model based on the Meteo-France operational atmospheric model AROME and the NEMO ocean model. Exchanges between the two models are handled by the OASIS3 coupler. AROME is initialized and forced at its lateral boundaries with ALADIN 10km-resolution 6-hourly analysis and is integrated during 96 hours at 2.5km convective-resolving resolution. NEMO is initialized and forced with global 1/4° oceanic analyses performed weekly at Mercator-Ocean and is integrated at 1/12° eddy-resolving resolution.

An ensemble of 25 coupled simulations and 25 atmospheric-only (forced) simulations based on 5 different TCs over the 2008-2013 seasons are then computed to explore the sensitivity of the TC hindcast to the SST. The ensemble is generated by varying the initial simulation time with a 6-hours step. A clear improvement of the SST evolution under the TCs is observed in the coupled simulations when compared to satellite data. This SST difference directly impacts turbulent latent and sensible heat fluxes spatial distribution and intensities, which lead to different intensification rates in the coupled and the forced simulations. The intensity hindcast mean error is significantly reduced in the coupled ensemble for hindcast ranges extending from 36h up to 96h. A statistical analysis confirms the robustness of this intensity hindcast improvement achieved with the coupled model.