Investigating long-term interactions between phytoplankton and zooplankton in the NE Atlantic and North Sea

It is believed that changes in phytoplankton community have happened in the North Sea and NE Atlantic in the past decades. Since phytoplankton are the base of the marine food web, it is essential to understand the causes of such behaviour due its potential to induce change in the wider ecosystem. Whilst the impact of environmental controls, such as climate, have received considerable attention, phytoplankton can also be affected by zooplankton grazing. We investigate how changes in zooplankton impact phytoplankton populations and community composition, and vice-versa. We use data from the Continuous Plankton Recorder survey, an unique dataset that uses the same sampling methodology since 1958 and thus provides long and comparable plankton time-series. We apply statistical modelling to describe the interaction between phytoplankton and zooplankton. The analysis is inspired from techniques available in econometrics literature, which do not require assumptions of normality, independence or stationarity of the time-series. In particular, we discuss wether climatic factors or zooplankton grazing are more relevant to the variability in phytoplankton abundance and community composition.