Conflict in the Currents: The Cross-boundary Consequences of Larval Dispersal

As commercial fish populations decline in many regions, the increasing demand for ocean resources can create conflicts along international boundaries. Because fish stock ranges do not respect political boundaries, neighboring countries can impact each other through the management of the stocks within their exclusive economic zones. By combining spawning and larvae information from the FishBase database with current velocities from ocean reanalyses using a particle tracking scheme, we construct a measure of the cross-boundary diffusion of fish larvae for 40 major exploited species. These flows represent important connections both for fish populations and for fisheries and the people who depend on them, but these connections rely on fisheries management in the 'source' countries. We then use socioeconomic data on the national importance of these fish to identify hotspots for potential conflict. Finally, we consider how ranges will shift under climate change, and the social impacts of these shifts.