Response of Marine Taxa to Climate Variability in the Southeast U.S.

Climate change has led to large-scale redistributions of marine taxa in many coastal regions around North America. Specifically, marine populations respond to spatial shifts in their preferred temperature conditions, or thermal envelope, as they shift across a seascape. The influence of climate change on the coastal fisheries of the southeast U.S. has been largely unexplored. We analyzed 25 years of trawl survey data (1990-2014) from the Southeast Area Monitoring and Assessment Program (SEAMAP), which samples the nearshore continental shelf of the South Atlantic Bight during spring, summer, and fall. Bottom temperatures exhibited no trend over this period and the assemblage showed no net shift north or south. However, taxa distributions were sensitive to interannual temperature variation. Annual projections of taxa thermal envelopes explained variation in centroid location for many species, particularly during spring. Accordingly, long-term latitudinal shifts in taxa-specific thermal envelopes, which trended to the north or south depending on the species, were highly correlated with centroid shifts during spring. One explanation for our results is that the phenology of taxa migration is adaptable to temperature variation. In particular, the inshore-offshore movement of species during spring and fall appears quite responsive to interannual temperature variability.