Long-term simulations of dissolved oxygen concentrations in Lake Trout lakes

Lake Trout are a rare and valuable natural resource that are threatened by multiple environmental stressors. With the added threat of climate warming, there is growing concern among resource managers that increased thermal stratification will reduce the habitat quality of deep-water Lake Trout lakes through enhanced oxygen depletion. To address this issue, a three-part study is underway, which aims to: analyze sediment cores to understand the past, develop empirical formulae to model the present and apply computational models to forecast the future. This presentation reports on the computational modeling efforts. To this end, a simple dissolved oxygen sub-model has been embedded in the one-dimensional bulk mixed-layer thermodynamic Canadian Small Lake Model (CSLM). This model is currently being incorporated into the Canadian Land Surface Scheme (CLASS), the primary land surface component of Environment Canada’s global and regional climate modelling systems. The oxygen model was calibrated and validated by hind-casting temperature and dissolved oxygen profiles from two Lake Trout lakes on the Canadian Shield. These data sets include 5 years of high-frequency (10 s to 10 min) data from Eagle Lake and 30 years of bi-weekly data from Harp Lake. Initial results show temperature and dissolved oxygen was predicted with root mean square error <1.5 °C and <3 mgL^-1, respectively. Ongoing work is validating the model, over climate-change relevant timescales, against dissolved oxygen reconstructions from the sediment cores and predicting future deep-water temperature and dissolved oxygen concentrations in Canadian Lake Trout lakes under future climate change scenarios. This model will provide a useful tool for managers to ensure sustainable fishery resources for future generations.