Contrasting decadal and centennial timescale warming patterns aroundGreenland in CMIP5 models

Late 21^st century projections of coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) included in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble exhibit robust subsurface oceanic warming around the Greenland ice sheet, but its magnitude, and vertical and horizontal distribution, varies widely. Here we investigate the time evolution of the 3-D warming pattern in different ocean sectors around the ice sheet, comparing CMIP5 warming patterns to the observed warming of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre and near-Greenland oceans in the past two decades. Our analysis suggests that oceanic and/or atmospheric mechanisms underlying century-timescale warming: 1) differ across models and 2) are distinct from observed decadal-timescale temperature variability. In addition to century timescale trends, we also highlight the presence and/or absence of decadal-timescale warming events analogous to the mid-1990's warming in the subpolar gyre across the AOGCM ensemble.