Evolution of the Kuroshio in the East China Sea: 2010-2015

The Kuroshio flows into the East China Sea (ECS) between Taiwan and Iriomote Island and exits via the Tokara Strait. Its flow path is largely topographically steered; however, modes exist in which the main flow bifurcates within the ECS or the Kuroshio meanders toward the Ryukyus. The Kuroshio weakens/strengthens on seasonal time scales, but it is also affected by the El Niño Southern Oscillation climatic signal. The U.S. Naval Oceanographic Office has been running a 1/30° resolution Regional Navy Coastal Ocean Model (RNCOM) nest that covers this region since 2010. The variability of the path and strength of the Kuroshio will be examined over the period 2010-2015 using RNCOM, atmospheric data from the Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS), and a 20-year Global Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (G-HYCOM) reanalysis for climatological purposes. The volume transport of the Kuroshio will be calculated through transects at the ECS entry and exit points. A frontal analysis will be conducted using sea surface temperature data. Particular emphasis will be placed on the potential effect of the strong El Niño event that is expected to continue developing over the latter half of 2015.