Environmental Factors Influencing Antarctic Krill Recruitment along the Western Antarctic Peninsula

Climate warming in the Western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) is impacting pelagic food web structure. Antarctic krill, Euphausia superba, are a critical food-web link between primary producers and higher trophic levels such as penguins, seals, and whales. Climate-induced changes in krill recruitment are thus an important consideration when evaluating future WAP ecosystem trends. We examined long-term (1993 to 2015) and spatial (north/south) changes in summer krill recruitment. Krill were collected within the epipelagic zone during the Palmer Antarctica Long-Term Ecological Research (PAL LTER) cruises within a 700 x 260 km sampling grid along the WAP. Krill from each tow were enumerated and their lengths were measured. A simple recruitment index based on the proportion of krill smaller than 40 mm (F40) was used in our analyses. There was a significant 5-6-year cyclical trend in F40. In the last 5 years, the southern population has begun to deviate from this cycle. To investigate potential environmental factors leading to this pattern in recruitment success, F40 was regressed with environmental factors and climatological indices for both the whole PAL LTER grid and north/south sub-regions. Over the whole grid, F40 was positively correlated with chlorophyll a and primary production, both with a 1-year lag. Spatially, these trends were strongest for chlorophyll in the north, and primary production in the south. Krill recruitment in the south was also correlated to climatological indices such as the Multivariate El Niño/Southern Oscillation Index (MEI). These correlations could be used to forecast future krill population changes.