TEMPESTS: A Rapid Response Storm Study for the Northeast U.S.

While storm tracks are forecast with good skill with several days’ lead, forecasts of storm intensity remain less accurate. Changes in upper ocean heat content by storm-induced mixing provide an important feedback to storm intensity, but are often not adequately observed or represented by operational models. Over the continental shelf of the northeastern U.S. in summer, a relatively cold, subsurface water mass, the Cold Pool, is subject to storm-induced mixing that may affect the intensity of storms approaching population centers. The TEMPESTS team has developed a rapid response measurement capability using multiple observational platforms. Newly developed buoys deployed nearshore measure storm surge, winds, and waves; gliders provide measurements of hydrography, velocity, and waves over the mid-shelf; and air-deployed ALAMO floats measure upper ocean heat content and waves in the deep ocean. The integrated system allows for measurements from storm genesis in the deep ocean to landfall in the northeast with observations available in realtime for operational work. Preliminary results from deployments during Hurricane Arthur in 2014 as well as Danny and Erika in 2015 will be described. Storm buoys were deployed in blizzards in early 2015 and wave and sea level measurements will be presented. Operational challenges will be discussed and some guidelines for future rapid response systems will be suggested.