Ocean observing systems support operational forecasts for the timing of Maine’s lobster fishery

American lobster supports one of the most valuable fisheries in the United States, with a landed value in 2013 exceeding $460M. Although US lobstermen are free to fish throughout the year, the New England climate, lobster biology and fleet dynamics lead to a strong annual cycle with catch rates rising rapidly in early summer and landings peaking in late summer. When this annual cycle is disrupted, it can impact the supply and ultimately the price of lobsters. During the record warm conditions in 2012, the rise in catch rates occurred three weeks ahead of normal. Combined with higher than normal landings from the spring Canadian fishery, the early and high volume landings in 2012 led to a collapse in price that severely stressed the U. S. fishery, especially in Maine where over 85% of the landings occur. Based on this experience, we have been developing seasonal forecasts of the phenology of Maine lobster landings. Using temperatures at 50m from four NERACOOS buoys in the Gulf of Maine, we can reliably forecast the date when the Maine lobster fishery will ‘turn on’ for the year, with prediction accuracy peaking in April. The high-landings period normally starts in July, and the 2-3 month lead-time provides some advance warning to dealers and processors of when their capacity needs to be ready and to fishermen of potential supply chain and market impacts such as we observed in 2012. We are currently working towards finer-scale regional forecasts along the Maine coast that may include other features that will provide information to help the lobster industry adapt to the rapid changes that are underway in the Gulf of Maine.