Effects of ecological interactions and environmental conditions on community dynamics in an estuarine ecosystem

Coastal marine ecosystems are both productive and vulnerable to human and natural stressors. Examining the relative importance of fishing, environmental variability, and habitat alteration on ecosystem dynamics is challenging. Intensive harvest and habitat loss have resulted in widespread concerns related to declines in fisheries production, but causal mechanisms are rarely clear. In this study, we modeled trophic dynamics in Galveston Bay, Texas, using fishery-independent catch data for blue crab, shrimp, red drum, Atlantic croaker and spotted seatrout along with habitat information collected by the Texas Parks and Wildlife Department during 1984 - 2014. We developed a multispecies state-space model to examine ecological interactions and partition the relative effects of trophic interactions and environmental conditions on the community dynamics. Preliminary results showed the importance of salinity, density-dependence, and trophic interactions. We are continuing to explore these results from a perspective of fish community compensatory responses to exploitation, reflecting both direct and indirect effects of harvesting under the influence of climate variability.