The Adaptive Ecosystem Climatology (AEC): Design and Development

The concept of ecosystem-based management (EBM), recently introduced to rectify the shortcomings of single-species management policies, has been widely accepted as a basis for the conservation and management of natural resources. In line with NOAA’s Integrated Ecosystem Assessment (IEA) Program, EBM is an integrated approach that considers the entire ecosystem and the interactions among species rather than focusing on individual components. This integrative approach relies on heterogeneous data, physical as well as biogeochemical data, among many others. Relative to physical data, however, marine biogeochemical records, also critical in IEA and EBM, are still lacking, both in terms of mature models and in terms of observational data availability. TheAdaptive Ecosystem Climatology (AEC) was conceived as a novel approach to address these limitations, mitigating the shortcomings of the individual components and combining their strengths to enhance decision-making activities. AEC is designed on the concept that a high-frequency climatology can be used as a baseline into which available observational data can be ingested to produce a higher accuracy product. In the absence of observations, the climatology acts as a best estimate. AEC was developed using a long-term simulation of a coupled biophysical numerical model configured for the Gulf of Mexico. Using the model results, we constructed a three-dimensional, dynamically balanced, gridded, static climatology for each calendar day. Using this ‘static’ climatology as a background ‘first guess’, observations from a particular date are ingested via optimal interpolation to ‘nudge’ the climatology toward current conditions, thus providing representative fields for that date (adaptive climatology). With this adaptive approach, AEC can support a variety of EBM objectives, from fisheries, to resource management, to coastal resilience.