Assessing the Utility of Seasonal SST Forecasts to the Fisheries Management Process: a Pacific Sardine Case Study

It is well established that environmental fluctuations affect the productivity of numerous fish stocks. Recent advances in prediction capability of dynamical global forecast systems, such as the state of the art NOAA Geophysical Fluid dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) 2.5-FLOR model, allow for climate predictions of fisheries-relevant variables at temporal scales relevant to the fishery management decision making process. We demonstrate that the GFDL FLOR model produces skillful seasonal SST anomaly predictions over the continental shelf , where most of the global fish yield is generated. The availability of skillful SST projections at this “fishery relevant” scale raises the potential for better constrained estimates of future fish biomass and improved harvest decisions. We assessed the utility of seasonal SST coastal shelf predictions for fisheries management using the case study of Pacific sardine. This fishery was selected because it is one of the few to already incorporate SST into its harvest guideline, and show a robust recruitment-SST relationship. We quantified the effectiveness of management under the status quo harvest guideline (HG) and under alternative HGs including future information at different levels of uncertainty. Usefulness of forecast SST to management was dependent on forecast uncertainty. If the standard deviation of the SST anomaly forecast residuals was less than 0.65, the alternative HG produced higher long-term yield and stock biomass, and reduced the probability of either catch or stock biomass falling below management-set threshold values as compared to the status quo. By contrast, probability of biomass falling to extremely low values increased as compared to the status quo for all alternative HGs except for a perfectly known future SST case. To safeguard against occurrence of such low probability but costly events, a harvest cutoff biomass also has to be implemented into the HG.