Slow Adaptation in the Face of Rapid Warming Leads to the Collapse of Atlantic Cod in the Gulf of Maine

Climate change is altering conditions in all marine ecosystems, but the pace of change is not uniform. Rapid changes in environmental conditions pose a challenge for resource management, especially when available tools or policies assume the environment is stationary. Between 2004 and 2013, the Gulf of Maine and northwest Atlantic Shelf warmed at a rate that few large marine ecosystems have ever experienced. This warming was associated with a northward shift in the Gulf Stream and with Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation. The unprecedented warming led to reduced recruitment and enhanced mortality of Atlantic cod. Fisheries management has built-in feedbacks designed to reduce quotas as populations decline, but the management process could not keep pace with the rapid temperature-related changes in the Gulf of Maine cod stock. Future recovery of this fishery now depends on both sound management and favorable temperatures. The experience in the Gulf of Maine highlights the need to incorporate environmental factors into resource management and to build resiliency in coupled social-ecological systems. It also highlights a need for scientific and policy guidance for managing species threatened by future warming.