A Theoretical Basis for the Transition to Denitrification at Nanomolar Oxygen Concentrations

Current climate change is likely to expand the size and intensity of marine oxygen minimum zones. How will this affect denitrification rates? Current global biogeochemical models typically prescribe a critical oxygen concentration below which anaerobic activity occurs, rather than resolve the underlying microbial processes. Here, we explore the dynamics of an idealized, simulated anoxic zone in which multiple prokaryotic metabolisms are resolved mechanistically, defined by redox chemistry and biophysical constraints. We first ask, what controls the critical oxygen concentration governing the favorability of aerobic or anaerobic respiration? The predicted threshold oxygen concentration varies as a function of the environment as well as of cell physiology, and lies within the nanomolar range. The model thus provides a theoretical underpinning for the recent observations of nanomolar oxygen concentrations in oxygen minimum zones. In the context of an idealized, two-dimensional intensified upwelling simulation, we also predict denitrification at oxygen concentrations orders of magnitude higher due to physical mixing, reconciling observations of denitrification over a similar range and demonstrating a decoupling of denitrification from the local oxygen concentration. In a sensitivity study with the idealized ocean model, we comment upon the relationship between the volume of anoxic waters and total denitrification.