SST cooling along coastal Java and Sumatra during positive Indian Ocean Dipole events

The evolution of positive Indian Ocean Dipole (pIOD) events is driven in part by anomalous SST cooling near the coasts of Java and Sumatra. However, the mechanisms and timeline of surface temperature changes near these two islands are distinct. Satellite data and mixed layer budgets in a forced ocean model simulation with 0.1° spatial resolution were used to characterize the dominant influences on SST in each region during pIOD events. Along the south coast of Java, where upwelling from southeasterly trade winds happens seasonally in June-September, strengthening/weakening of the trade winds has little effect on the interannual variability of SST. Instead, remotely-forced upwelling Kelvin waves are the primary mechanism for producing anomalous Java SST cooling in the early stages of a pIOD event. Other mechanisms that affect Java SST anomalies include inflows from the interior Indonesian Seas, mesoscale eddies, and air-sea heat fluxes; these influences can hasten the decay of cool Java SST anomalies and therefore may impact the strength and duration of pIOD events.

Along the west coast of Sumatra, surface cooling is initially delayed by a deeper thermocline and a salinity-stratified barrier layer. Hence upwelling Kelvin waves do not substantially affect SST near Sumatra during the first 2-3 months of Java SST cooling; however, they do help drive surface cooling near Sumatra once the barrier layer has been sufficiently eroded by waters of decreasing temperature and increasing salinity. Upwelling Kelvin wave activity in the equatorial Indian Ocean starting in April is also shown to be a robust predictor of pIOD events later in the calendar year.