Changing ecosystem response to nitrogen load into Buzzards Bay, MA

Nitrogen (N) and chlorophyll-a (Chla) concentration in estuarine systems often correlate positively with increased N inputs. Evaluation of a long-term water quality data set (1992 -2013) for Buzzards Bay, MA, however reveals that ecosystem response to N inputs may be changing over time, as represented by increased yield of Chla per unit total nitrogen (TN) from 1992-2013. To determine if this change is caused by changes in nitrogen sources, we estimate nitrogen input from 28 watersheds. Combining parcel specific waste water disposal, land use, and atmospheric deposition data, we estimated N loads into Buzzards Bay from 1985-2013 using a previously verified Nitrogen Loading Model. Of the 28 watersheds analyzed, the six largest watersheds released the largest absolute N loads into receiving estuaries ranging from approximately 50,000-220,000 kg N yr^-1. Normalizing N loads by watershed and estuarine areas revealed that smaller watersheds release some of the greatest relative loads into estuaries making these watersheds more vulnerable to increases in N load. A linear regression analysis of N load through time revealed decreasing N loads for most watersheds on the western side of Buzzards Bay which we believe is reflecting decreased atmospheric N from 1985-2013. Out of the ten sub-watersheds on the eastern side, increases in human waste, driven primarily by increased parcels on septic have resulted in overall N load increases for 9 watersheds. Comparison of in situ TN and Chla concentrations with N load estimates for several watersheds and adjoining estuaries suggest that varied ecosystem responses to N load may be reflecting differences in physical stressors such as estuarine morphology, residence time, and climate change. Results of this study also reveal the importance of watershed specific mitigation efforts to best accommodate dominant N sources which may be influenced regionally (atmospheric N) and locally (fertilizer and human waste).