Poleward displacement of coastal upwelling-favorable winds through the 21st century

Coastal upwelling is a critical factor influencing the biological production, acidification, and deoxygenation of the ocean's major eastern boundary current ecosystems. A leading conceptual hypothesis projects that the winds that induce coastal upwelling will intensify in response to increased land-sea temperature differences associated with anthropogenic global warming. We examine this hypothesis using an ensemble of coupled, ocean-atmosphere models and find limited evidence for intensification of upwelling-favorable winds or atmospheric pressure gradients in response to increasing land-sea temperature differences. However, our analyses reveal consistent latitudinal and seasonal dependencies of projected changes in wind intensity associated with poleward migration of major atmospheric high-pressure cells. Summertime winds near poleward boundaries of climatological upwelling zones are projected to intensify, while winds near equatorward boundaries are projected to weaken. Developing a better understanding of future changes in upwelling winds is essential to identifying portions of the oceans susceptible to increased hypoxia, ocean acidification, and eutrophication under climate change.