Ocean Color Reveals Multi-scale Responses of Phytoplankton to Changing Sea Ice and Ocean Temperatures along the Western Antarctic Peninsula.

The western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) is experiencing dramatic climate change as maritime conditions expand poleward and interact with regional physics and local topography. In situ observations collected by the Palmer LTER project have provided three decades of insight regarding changes in phytoplankton abundance and community structure seasonally at Palmer station, and spatially during annual cruises across the WAP shelf. Despite the challenges with cloud cover and high latitude retrieval, satellite-based phytoplankton observations have extended inference from in situ observations and have improved our understanding of ecological pattern and process in this region. Multi-sensor satellite analyses were conducted to extend in situ observations and determine the multi-scale response of phytoplankton to changes in sea-ice and temperature. At local scales, enhanced phytoplankton standing stock and diatom dominance were evident at canyons, which act as conduits or reservoirs for warm, nutrient rich Upper Circumpolar Deep Water. However, this positive effect was absent during low ice years. At regional scales, sea-ice declines and warming temperatures were evident over the modern satellite era (since 1997) and were consistent with cross-shelf and latitudinal gradients in phytoplankton responses. Shifts towards smaller size classes were evident across the entire shelf, suggesting a decline in export potential. Phytoplankton abundance in the northern WAP decreased over time, and increased in the southern WAP, although the spatial extent of positive response appears to have retreated in the past decade. Thus, while positive responses to sea-ice loss are evident at both local and regional scales, their capacity to offset climate trends appear to be diminishing.