A Reversal of Decadal Trends in the Equatorial and North Indian Ocean

Sea level and upper ocean temperature trends in the Equatorial and North Indian Ocean (ENIO) reversed sign shortly after the turn of the century. The trend reversal is spatially coherent and characterized by subsurface cooling during 1993-2002 followed by subsurface warming during 2003-2012. Here we explore the dynamics and forcing of the decadal trend reversal, with a particular emphasis on the role of the Indian Ocean cross-equatorial cell (CEC) and anomalies transmitted from the Pacific basin to the ENIO via the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF). An examination of reanalysis wind-stress fields suggest that forcing of the CEC is enhanced during the cooling phase of the decadal fluctuation, which may account for the cooling trend below 100m in the ENIO during the first decade. In contrast, the subsurface warming during the second decade occurs at thermocline levels, which suggests a deepening of the thermocline during this period. Enhanced Pacific tradewinds since the early 1990s result in a deepening thermocline in the western tropical Pacific (WTP), which may be transmitted to the Indian Ocean basin via the ITF. We present results from simple model experiments that assess the potential for thermocline anomalies originating in the WTP to account for the deepening thermocline in the ENIO during the warming phase of the decadal fluctuation.