New Inlet in Great South Bay: Changes in Circulation Dynamics, Residence Time, and Salt Balance in Response to Low Frequency Forcing from Observations and FCVOM Simulations

The Great South Bay is a shallow, multi-inlet estuary at the south shore of Long Island. It is sheltered from the Atlantic by its barrier island Fire Island. Sufficient freshwater input in form of river flow, runoff, and groundwater input combined with restricted ocean-bay-exchange through few narrow inlets produce significant horizontal salinity and temperature gradients. A new inlet was cut into Fire Island during Hurricane Sandy in October 2012, and thanks to the ongoing monitoring program observational data is available from before and after Sandy to investigate changes in the bay induced by this new inlet.

The data show a persistent increase in salinity in the bay, and residents, fishermen and scientists report decreased turbidity, improved water quality and a healthier ecosystem in the eastern part of bay. Calculation of residence time based on the freshwater fraction method showed a decrease from 25 to ten days for Bellport Bay near the new breach.

From tide gauge data we see, that while tidal range in the bay has not increased significantly with the new inlet, water level response to low frequency forcing did. In general, water levels within the bay responds to both coastal Ekman set-up/set-down and to local wind forcing over the bay itself. Data analysis shows that the relative importance of those two drivers did change with the new inlet.

In concert with data analysis, the finite element model FVCOM is applied on a high-resolution Great South Bay grid to further investigate changes in salinity distribution, circulation, and bay-ocean volume-exchange induced by the new breach as well as to examine the degree of interaction between the existing inlets and the new breach.