Interannual Drivers of Circulation and Heat Exchange in the Coral Triangle

The Coral Triangle (CT) has complex geometry, topography and dynamics. Here, we seek to understand the role of global climate forcing in producing regional changes in circulation and heat exchange. Volume and heat transport time series at 30 key passages throughout the CT are obtained from a 40-year hindcast simulation using the Regional Ocean Modeling System. Power spectral densities of the time series show a rich spatial distribution of response time scales, including prominent contributions from secular, inter-annual, annual, and higher-frequency signals. Multivariate analysis is employed to correlate the simulated time series with observed indices of global climate variability. The resulting analysis suggests the ways in which CT ecosystems may be susceptible to future global climate change.