Empirical statistical models of the longitudinal record of Summer Hypoxic area in the Northern Gulf of Mexico

Observations of the areal extent of seasonal hypoxia over the Texas–Louisiana continental shelf from 1985 to 2015 are correlated with a variety of physical and biogeochemical forcing mechanisms. The LUMCON surveys of recurrent summer hypoxic area in the Northern Gulf of Mexico form a valuble longitudinal record of the severity and evolution of long term changes in coastal systems. Empirical statistical models are used to investigate observations of physical and chemical process, such as river discharge, upwelling-favorable winds, and nutrient loading, and their influences as mechanisms controlling hypoxia. We find that observations of physical and chemical drivers are significant, but insufficient for fully explaining observed hypoxic area over the long term record, exposing opportunities for physics and biogeochemical based models to add to our understanding of the system. Policy implications of interventions are examined in relation to the variability in the system.