Increasing trend of storm surge along East China Coast and its causes

Storm surges due to land-falling tropical cyclones (TCs) result in losses of life and property; the costs are expected to continue rising should coastal developments remain unabated [Aon Benfield 2013]. Due to climate warming, some studies have projected increased TC intensity and/or frequency, which are particularly significant in the western North Pacific [Bender et al 2010; Knutsen et al 2010; Emanuel 2013]. For past several decades the location of TC maximum intensity has also shifted poleward [Kossin et al 2014]. Here we use 64-year (1950-2013) TC tracks and intensities to simulate storm surges along the East Asian continent. We found that while the number of land-falling TC’s has decreased, the location has shifted northward, TC lifetimes have increased and translation speeds decreased. These changes were significant after 1980’s and have resulted in a significant rise in the intensity as well as poleward shift of the location of storm surges along the East Asian coast.