A Blueprint for the Ecological Monitoring of Australia’s Oceans.

Monitoring Australia’s marine area is fundamental to understanding and documenting how the ocean is changing in response to human pressures. Fifty-four key ecological features (KEFs) were identified as areas of particular value to the Australian Government over the last 8 years. These were divided into six reporting groups: areas of enhanced pelagic productivity, canyons, deep seabeds, seamounts, shelf reefs and seabeds. Ecosystem models were built for 33 KEF systems that have the strongest datasets, based on a theoretical understanding of how they function. Human pressures were identified by regional specialists and combined with the KEF models to create a set of medium-term pressure scenarios for each KEF. Between four and 25 pressure scenarios were identified for each KEF. Examples of human pressures include the strengthening of the East Australian Current and shifts in ocean upwelling due to climate change, major fluctuations in pelagic fish and fur seal populations, and fishing, shipping and oil and gas activities. KEF models encompass parts of the ecosystem that have potential to be monitored as long-term indicators that increase, decrease, or remain unchanged under each pressure scenario. Suitable indicators are those that respond in predictable ways across all pressure scenarios for a KEF. Results from pressure scenarios developed to test indicators for Australia’s nine enhanced pelagic productivity KEFs will be presented. Satellite observations were analysed to tease out the long-term trend in phytoplankton and ocean upwelling. The comparison of predicted and observed trends in indicators leads to an improved understanding of KEF systems and the utility of the indicators. A change in indicator is a signal that something was happening to a valued system. The prediction-observation process would explain why. This process is repeatable and can be updated as new information comes available.