Multi-criteria Resource Mapping and its Relevance in the Assessment of Habitat Changes

Mineral and geological resources can be considered to be non-renewable on time scales relevant for decision makers. Once exhausted by humans, they are not replenished rapidly enough by nature, meaning that truly sustainable resource exploitation is not possible. Comprehensive knowledge on the distribution, composition and dynamics of geological resources and on the environmental impact of aggregate extraction is therefore critical.

For the Belgian and southern Netherlands part of the North Sea, being representative of a typical sandbank system, a 4D resource decision-support system is being developed that links 3D geological models with environmental impact models. Aim is to quantify natural and man-made changes and to define from these sustainable exploitation thresholds. These are needed to ensure that recovery from perturbations is rapid and secure, and that the range of natural variation is maintained, a prerequisite stated in Europe’s Marine Strategy Framework Directive, the environmental pillar of Europe’s Maritime Policy.

The geological subsurface is parameterised using a voxel modelling approach. Primarily, the voxels, or volume blocks of information, are constrained by the geology, based on coring and seismic data, but they are open to any resource-relevant information. The primary geological data entering the voxels are subdued to uncertainty modelling, a necessary step to produce data products with confidence limits.

The presentation will focus on the novelty this approach brings for seabed and habitat mapping. In our model this is the upper voxel, providing the advantage of having a dynamical coupling to the geology and a suite of environmental parameters. In the context of assessing habitat changes, this coupling enables to account for spatial and temporal variability, seabed heterogeneity, as well as data uncertainty. The project is funded by Belgian Science Policy and is further valorised through EMODnet-Geology (DG MARE).