Finding the missing plastic –resolving the global mass (im)balance for plastic pollution in the ocean

Several global studies have attempted to estimate the standing stock of plastic debris in the oceans at the global scale. However, recent work estimating the amount lost from land on an annual basis suggests that the standing stock should be several orders of magnitude larger than the global estimates. We investigate the role of coastal deposition within the first few weeks after plastic enters the ocean and very near its sources, one of the hypothesized sinks for the missing plastic in this mass balance. We utilize a continental scale dataset of plastics collected along Australia’s coast and in the offshore regions together with models of plastic release and transport based on Lagrangian tracking to investigate the role of local deposition in the coastal environment. Our models predict that the vast majority of positively buoyant plastic is deposited within a very short distance from its release point, with only a small fraction escaping into the open ocean. These predictions match our coastal and offshore observations, providing clear evidence that this mechanism of immediate coastal deposition is, at least in part, driving the apparent mismatch between coastal emissions and the standing stock in the ocean.