Relating plastic in the ocean to ecological harm, a review of recent progress in risk analysis

Plastic pollution in the ocean is emerging as a global environmental concern. Estimates suggest that we dump on the order of 8.4 million tons of plastic in the ocean each year. This plastic reaches substantial concentrations, with at sea sampling measuring densities over 580,000 items per square kilometer. However, it is difficult to relate this exposure to resulting ecological impacts. Animals dying due to plastic ingestion or entanglement may not was ahsore, and sampling at sea is expensive and infrequent. Thus demonstrating a direct relationship between plastic in the envioronment and harm to marine wildlife is challenging. Here we review current progress on risk assessment for impacts to marine wildlife from plastic pollution. The analyses we review range from expert elicitation to integrated statistical and physical models. They range widely in scope, from estimates at the individual level to who taxa analysis. Some of the analyses reach only to exposure to the pressure, whie others carry through to estimate demographic impacts and even mortality due to ingestion of or entanglement in plastic debris in the ocean. We summarize the results of these studies, and provide a roadmap for future contributions toward estimating the actual ecological impact of plastic pollution.