Variability in the tropical oceans is a key driver of the year-to-year variations in mid-latitude winter weather.

Jeff R Knight1, Anna Victoria Maidens1, Peter Watson2, Adam A Scaife1, Martin Andrews3, David Fereday4, Stephen Belcher5, Christopher Kenneth Folland1, Julia Slingo4 and Gilbert Brunet6, (1)Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom, (2)University of Oxford, Physics, Oxford, United Kingdom, (3)Met Office Hadley center for Climate Change, Exeter, United Kingdom, (4)Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom, (5)Met Office, United Kingdom, (6)Environment Canada Dorval, Dorval, QC, Canada