Are Australian Commonwealth marine protected areas climate ready?

Marine protected areas (MPAs) are recognized for their ability to moderate the effects of climate change. For example, corals situated within MPAs have shown increased survivorship from bleaching events, through reduced synergistic impacts of fishing and other anthropogenic pressures. Marine reserves may also protect benthic communities and facilitate carbon uptake, as well as prevent the loss of stored organic carbon. Despite these benefits, there are still several MPAs around the world that have been subject to the impacts of climate change, such as coral bleaching, loss of biodiversity and general ecological degradation. Is this preventable through more effective management? Or, are marine protected areas well managed and prepared to mitigate climate change? The aim of this research is to assess the “climate readiness” of the Commonwealth MPA regions/parks around Australia. First, this research identifies, recent sea warming trends between 1992 and present. Satellite composites of sea surface temperature from NOAA AVHRR satellites are used to identify recent, statistically significant warming trends. Second, by implementing a thematic analysis of Commonwealth MPA management plans, we assess the adaptability of these regions to climate change impacts. Initial results show increasing trends of sea surface temperature (0.5-1.0°C) across the MPA regions. Preliminary thematic analysis indicates that the MPA management plans scored low (e.g. only 7.5 out of 33 points for the Coral Sea Marine Park) when compared against the climate change thematic framework criteria. Comprehensive results of warming trends compared against thematic analysis results will be presented. Guidelines for enhancing the effectiveness of MPA management in the face of climate change are discussed and prioritized for the different Commonwealth regions.