AGU Centennial Monograph – ENSO in a Changing Climate: ENSO and Tropical Cyclones

I-I Lin, National Taiwan University, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Taipei, Taiwan, Suzana Camargo, Columbia University, Lamont -Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY, United States, Christina M Patricola, Iowa State University, Geological & Atmospheric Sciences, Ames, United States, Julien Boucharel, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Meteorology, Honolulu, HI, United States, Savin Chand, Federation University, ACT, Australia, Philip Klotzbach, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, United States, Johnny Chung Leung Chan, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Bin Wang, Univ Hawaii, Honolulu, United States, Ping Chang, Texas A&M University, Department of Oceanography, College Station, United States, Tim Li, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI, United States and Fei-Fei Jin, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Honolulu, United States
One of ENSO’s most important influences is its worldwide modulation of tropical cyclone (TC) activity. TC is one of the most severe natural disasters to humankind. Because TC attributes (e.g., track, intensity, rainfall, genesis, landfall locations, size, translation speed, rapid intensification, total storm days, and accumulated cyclone energy) can be much controlled by large-scale oceanic and atmospheric conditions, TCs can be substantially altered by ENSO. ENSO can modify TC characteristics via both atmospheric and oceanic pathways. Atmospheric modulations include changes in vertical wind shear, humidity, low-level vorticity, and the strength and position of subtropical highs. Oceanic modulations on TC are via changes in sea-surface temperature, upper ocean heat content and upper ocean thermal structure. This chapter will focus on ENSO’s influences on TC basins around the globe, including local effects and remote influences via teleconnections. These basins include the western North Pacific, eastern-central North Pacific, North Atlantic, North Indian Ocean, and Southern Hemisphere basins (Australia, South Pacific and South Indian Ocean). We will also discuss additional factors that, together with ENSO, are important for TC prediction and projection, including natural climate variability at sub-seasonal to multi-decadal time-scales and anthropogenic climate change.