The PNW HAB Bulletin Project: Optimizing the role of modeling in a sustained-service harmful algal bloom early warning system in the Pacific Northwest

Hally B Stone, University of Washington, Oceanography, Seattle, WA, United States, Neil Banas, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, United Kingdom, Parker MacCready, University of Washington, School of Oceanography, Seattle, United States, Vera L Trainer, NOAA Northwest Fisheries Science Center, Marine Biotoxins Program, Seattle, WA, United States, Ryan M McCabe, University of Washington, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, Seattle, WA, United States, Barbara M Hickey, University of Washington Seattle Campus, Seattle, WA, United States, Dan L Ayres, Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife, United States and Matthew Hunter, Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife, United States
Abstract:
In the Pacific Northwest, harmful algal blooms (HABs) of the diatom Pseudo-nitzschia (PN) sometimes produce domoic acid, a neurotoxin that causes amnesic shellfish poisoning. The Pacific Northwest’s HAB Bulletin program, a partnership between academic, government, and tribal stakeholders, uses a combination of monitoring programs and modeling to better understand the formation, evolution, and transport of HABs in this region. In addition, this program produces periodic bulletins to inform local stakeholders of current and forecasted conditions. These bulletins make HAB risk recommendations using observations including in situ sampling, wind and surface current patterns, satellite chlorophyll concentrations, and river discharge, as well as relevant Pacific Ocean indices, marine weather forecasts, and modeled particle transport forecasts. Sampling occurs at beaches in WA and OR, as well as offshore in the Strait of Juan de Fuca, specifically measuring PN cell counts and domoic acid levels in seawater. 72-hour forecasts of PN transport from known HAB hotspots, the Juan de Fuca Eddy and Heceta Bank, are calculated in LiveOcean, a realistic ocean model developed at the University of Washington. Further development of this program includes improvement of the forecasting system, based on analysis of modeled particle transport pathways. This skill assessment of model-based hindcasts compared with historic beach sampling data will serve as a guide for the future role of the forecast model in expert synthesis for the bulletin. Overall, this work will provide more region-specific forecasts that will better prepare PNW communities for HAB impacts.
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