PC44A:
Ecosystem Forecasts and Projections II Posters

Session ID#: 85833

Session Description:
Big changes are happening in the ocean. However, global trends in ocean heat content, physics, and biogeochemistry may not accurately represent changes in coastal regions where modulation by local processes plays a crucial role. Coastal oceans support productive, economically important ecosystems that are essential to dependent coastal communities. Therefore, it is vital that we consider the extent to which local processes modulate global trends in order to effectively anticipate climate change manifestation in coastal systems. Ocean simulations that resolve coastal processes can provide mechanistic insights into dynamics that drive local variability in ecosystem-relevant parameters such as temperature, oxygen content and carbonate chemistry. This session welcomes studies focused on ocean projections and forecasts for coastal ecosystems and ecosystem-relevant conditions on decadal to climate timeframes. We invite presentations on development and/or analysis of these projections, as well as studies utilizing downscaled ocean products to advance our understanding of projected or paleobiological changes to marine communities or ecosystems, and/or that discuss how such projections can be used to assist marine resource/conservation management decisions at regional, national, or international scales.
Co-Sponsor(s):
  • CP - Coastal and Estuarine Processes
  • ME - Marine Ecology and Biodiversity
  • OC - Ocean Change: Acidification and Hypoxia
Index Terms:

1615 Biogeochemical cycles, processes, and modeling [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1627 Coupled models of the climate system [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1630 Impacts of global change [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1630 Impacts of global change [GLOBAL CHANGE]
4263 Ocean predictability and prediction [OCEANOGRAPHY: GENERAL]
6309 Decision making under uncertainty [POLICY SCIENCES & PUBLIC ISSUES]
Primary Chair:  Samantha A Siedlecki, University of Connecticut, Department of Marine Sciences, Groton, United States
Co-chairs:  Elizabeth Drenkard, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, United States, Peter Kalmus, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, United States and Enrique Curchitser, Rutgers University, Department of Environmental Sciences, New Brunswick, NJ, United States
Primary Liaison:  Samantha A Siedlecki, University of Connecticut, Department of Marine Sciences, Groton, United States
Moderators:  Elizabeth Drenkard, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, United States and Peter Kalmus, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, United States
Student Paper Review Liaison:  Samantha A Siedlecki, University of Connecticut, Department of Marine Sciences, Groton, United States

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

 
PC44A-1839
A Decision Support System to Monitor Hypoxic Blooms of Noctiluca in the Coastal Waters of Oman (653818)
Dale Adolph Kiefer, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, United States, Zachary C. Siegrist, System Science Applications, Renton, United States, Sergio DeRada, Naval Research Laboratory, Stennis Space Center, MS, United States, Fei Chai, Second Institute of Oceanography, State Oceanic Administration, State Key Laboratory of Satellite Ocean Environment Dynamics, Hangzhou, China, Joaquim I Goes, Lamont Doherty Earth Obs, Palisades, United States and Lubna Al-Kharusi, Ministry of Agriculture and Fisheries Wealth, Oman
 
PC44A-1840
The PNW HAB Bulletin Project: Optimizing the role of modeling in a sustained-service harmful algal bloom early warning system in the Pacific Northwest (646616)
Hally B Stone, University of Washington, Oceanography, Seattle, WA, United States, Neil Banas, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, United Kingdom, Parker MacCready, University of Washington, School of Oceanography, Seattle, United States, Vera L Trainer, NOAA Northwest Fisheries Science Center, Marine Biotoxins Program, Seattle, WA, United States, Ryan M McCabe, University of Washington, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, Seattle, WA, United States, Barbara M Hickey, University of Washington Seattle Campus, Seattle, WA, United States, Dan L Ayres, Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife, United States and Matthew Hunter, Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife, United States
 
PC44A-1841
Analysis of Sea-Run and Freshwater Fish Abundance Trends in the Penobscot River 2000-2019 (648636)
Justin Chandler-Holtz, NOAA-F Northeast Fisheries Science Center, Orono, ME, United States, Jason Valliere, Maine Department of Marine Resources, Bangor, ME, United States, Mitchell Simpson, Maine Department of Marine Resources, Bangor, United States and John Kocik, NOAA fisheries, Northeast Fisheries Science Center, Orono, ME, United States
 
PC44A-1842
Characterization of In-River Plus Growth in Atlantic Salmon Smolt Scales (655180)
Rachel Kim1, Ruth Haas-Castro2, Mark Renkawitz2 and Brandon Ellingson2, (1)Juniata College, Huntingdon, PA, United States, (2)NOAA, United States
 
PC44A-1843
CO2 and Temperature Effects on the Early Life-Stages of an Important Northwest Atlantic Forage Fish, Atlantic Silverside (Menidia menidia) (636230)
Grace OMalley, Allegheny College, Department of Biology, Meadville, PA, United States and Robert Christopher Chambers, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Northeast Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, Highlands, NJ, United States
 
PC44A-1844
Development of a Maryland Coastal Bays Ecosystem Model to Assess the Influence of Climatic Factors on Biomass Distributions of Fish and Macroinvertebrates, Food Web Linkages and Community Structure (655710)
Kasondra Herrera, University of Maryland Eastern Shore, Princess Anne, MD, United States, Howard Townsend, NOAA Fisheries, Oxford, MD, United States and Paulinus Chigbu, University of Maryland Eastern Shore, Natural Sciences, Princess Anne, MD, United States
 
PC44A-1845
Effects of the environment and the spawning stock structure on the distribution of Northeast Arctic cod larvae (654800)
Clarissa Akemi Kajiya Endo1, Natalia A Yaragina2, Frode B Vikebø3, Solfrid Sætre Hjøllo1, Leif Christian Stige4 and Morten D Skogen1, (1)Institute of Marine Research, Bergen, Norway, (2)Knipovich Polar Research Institute of Marine Fisheries and Oceanography Knipovich Polar Research Institute of Marine Fisheries and Oceanography, Russia, (3)Institute of Marine Research, Oceanography and Climate, Bergen, Norway, (4)University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
 
PC44A-1846
Environmental drivers of the presence and persistence of sand lance hotspots on the Northeast US Shelf (654775)
Justin Joseph Suca1, David Wiley2, Tammy L. Silva3, Anna R. Robuck4, David Richardson5, Sarah G Glancy6, Teresa Giandonato7, Michael A. Thompson3, Peter Hong3, Hannes Baumann8, Les Kaufman9 and Joel Llopiz10, (1)Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Biology Department, Woods Hole, MA, United States, (2)Stellwagen Bank National Marine Sanctuary, United States, (3)Stellwagen Bank National Marine Sanctuary, Scituate, MA, United States, (4)Environmental Protection Agency Narragansett, Narragansett, United States, (5)NOAA Northeast Fisheries Science Center, Narragansett, RI, United States, (6)Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA, United States, (7)Colorado Mesa University, Grand Junction, CO, United States, (8)University of Connecticut, Marine Sciences, Groton, CT, United States, (9)Conservation International, Arlington, United States, (10)Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, United States
 
PC44A-1848
Predicting Regions of North Atlantic Right Whale, Eubaleana Glacialis, Habitat Suitability in the Gulf of Maine (643908)
Camille Ross, Colby College, Waterville, ME, United States, Nicholas Record, Bigelow Lab for Ocean Sciences, Tandy Center for Ocean Forecasting, East Boothbay, United States, Daniel Pendleton, NOAA Northeast Fisheries Science Center, United States and Benjamin Tupper, Bigelow Laboratory for Ocean Sciences, East Boothbay, ME, United States
 
PC44A-1849
Statistical Analysis of Local Oceanographic Variability Relative to Abalone Habitats at Isla Natividad (647111)
Hyunah Lee1, Yushan Sun1, Christian Reilly1, Lisa Marrack1, Fiorenza Micheli2 and Giulio De Leo3, (1)Santa Catalina School, Marine Ecology Research Program, Monterey, CA, United States, (2)Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States, (3)Stanford University, Hopkins Marine Station, Pacific Grove, CA, United States
 
PC44A-1850
The Importance of Environmental Exposure History in Forecasting Dungeness Crab Megalopae Occurrence Using J-SCOPE, a High-Resolution Model for the US Pacific Northwest (652880)
Emily L Norton, University of Washington, Cooperative Institute for Climate, Ocean, and Ecosystem Studies, Seattle, United States, Samantha Siedlecki, University of Connecticut, Department of Marine Sciences, Groton, United States, Isaac Kaplan, NOAA NWFSC, Seattle, WA, United States, Albert J Hermann, University of Washington, Cooperative Institute for Climate, Ocean, and Ecosystem Studies (CICOES), Seattle, United States, Jennifer L. Fisher, Oregon State University, Cooperative Institute of Marine Resources Studies, Newport, United States, Cheryl Morgan, Vancouver, BC, Canada, Suzanna Officer, Whitman College, Walla Walla, WA, United States, Casey Saenger, Western Washington University, Geology, Bellingham, United States, Simone R Alin, NOAA, Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, United States, Dr. Jan A Newton, PhD, University of Washington, Applied Physics Laboratory, Seattle, United States, Nina Bednarsek, Southern California Coastal Water Research Project, Biogeochemistry, Costa Mesa, United States and Richard A Feely, NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Ocean Climate Research Division, Seattle, WA, United States; NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, WA, United States
 
PC44A-1851
Identifying spatial and temporal tradeoff of fish early life stages in the Gulf of Alaska and Bering Sea regions (644726)
Lorenzo Ciannelli, Oregon State University, College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, Corvallis, OR, United States, Lauren Rogers, NOAA, Alaska Fisheries Science Center, Seattle, WA, United States and Steve Porter, NOAA Fisheries, Alaska Fisheries Science Center, Seattle, WA, United States
 
PC44A-1852
Local and large-scale environmental conditions can affect maternal investment, larval growth and recruitment of rockfish (Sebastes spp.) in the Southern California Bight (655010)
Noah Ben-Aderet, NOAA Southwest Fisheries Science Center, La Jolla, United States, Andrew Thompson, NOAA SWFSC, La Jolla, CA, United States and Larval rockfish sampling team, NOAA SWFSC
 
PC44A-1854
Outlook on Changes in Bering Sea Oxygen Cycling (646672)
Samuel Mogen1,2, Darren Pilcher1,3 and Jessica N Cross4, (1)NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, United States, (2)University of Colorado, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Boulder, United States, (3)University of Washington, CICOES, Seattle, United States, (4)NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, WA, United States
 
PC44A-1855
Phenological Variability of Coastal Upwelling in the California Current System (646866)
Steven James Bograd1, Michael Jacox2,3, Elliott L. Hazen4 and Isaac D Schroeder1,5, (1)NOAA Southwest Fisheries Science Center, Environmental Research Division, Monterey, CA, United States, (2)University of California-Santa Cruz, San Francisco, CA, United States, (3)NOAA Southwest Fisheries Science Center, La Jolla, CA, United States, (4)NOAA Southwest Fisheries Science Center, Environmental Research Division, Monterey, United States, (5)University of California Santa Cruz, Institute of Marine Sciences, Santa Cruz, CA, United States
 
PC44A-1856
It’s Not Just About Sea Surface Temperature: Synthesizing Information to Communicate Climate Change Projections for European Seas (651504)
Susan Kay, Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Plymouth, PL1, United Kingdom
 
PC44A-1857
Projecting extremes in California Current acidification (637663)
Gabriela Cazares, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Department of Chemistry, Cambridge, MA, United States, Nicole S Lovenduski, University of Colorado, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Boulder, CO, United States, Riley Xavier Brady, University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States and Eleanor Middlemas, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, Boulder, CO, United States
 
PC44A-1858
Managing Uncertainty: Strategic Downscaling of Climate Change Impacts on CCS Oceanography and Fisheries (651111)
Elizabeth Drenkard, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, United States, Charles A Stock, NOAA/OAR/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, United States, Arthur J Miller, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, United States, Sam McClatchie, NOAA Fisheries, SWFSC, La Jolla, CA, United States and Enrique N Curchitser, Rutgers University New Brunswick, Department of Environmental Sciences, New Brunswick, NJ, United States
 
PC44A-1859
Expanding the biophysical ensemble: hybrid dynamical-statistical downscaling methods based on spatial/temporal scale (655883)
Albert J Hermann, University of Washington, Cooperative Institute for Climate, Ocean, and Ecosystem Studies (CICOES), Seattle, United States
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