Distribution of pathogenic vibrios in coastal water

More than 50% of global human population lives within 50 miles of the coasts. Unfortunately, several pathogens (e.g., cholera, shigella, rotavirus) are frequently reported in coastal regions of the developing world. Water-related diarrheal diseases remain second leading cause of child death worldwide, killing over 1.5 million children annually and infecting millions more. These diseases (and thus pathogens) are not likely to be eradicated since the disease causing agents are always present and adapt to environment. Climate change and intensification of severe weather events is likely to increase sea level, and is expected to make flooding or drought uncertain along the coastal regions. It is estimated that a 40 cm rise in sea level is expected to increase the average annual numbers of people affected by coastal storm surges from less than 50 million at present to nearly 250 million by 2080. Given the complex nature of interaction between coastal ecology, human behavior, climate and diarrheal disease, it is important to have a holistic approach to understand mechanisms of outbreak and transmission of such pathogens along the coasts. The changing climate is likely to have wide-ranging effects on human. Most of these effects are likely to occur where hydrologic, climatic, and ecological extremes converge with population vulnerability, particularly in the developing world and pose a severe threat to national security for developed countries. Using data collected from several coastal regions, we will provide a framework and an adaptive model that determines ecological niches of pathogenic vibrios in seawater. The model is capable to run scenarios under various climate change conditions. We will also discuss the policy implications of distribution of vibrios in the global ocean water and how these may impact the national security of the US.