Impact of temperature trends and ocean temperature surprises on natural and human communities

The community of species, human institutions, and human activities at a given location have been shaped by historical conditions (both mean and variability) at that location. Anthropogenic climate change is now adding strong trends on top of existing natural variability. We use a series of theoretical models to explore how temperature trends impact natural and human communities that have adapted to a specific level of natural variability. Our theory suggests that surprises—events that are unexpected based on recent conditions—will increasingly challenge traditional decision-making. The theory also suggests that productivity of natural communities, and in some conditions, diversity, should decline under warming and cooling. To test these predictions, we analyzed global fishery landings, and we found that the majority of large marine ecosystems have one or more functional groups in which landings decline in response to a temperature trend.