Predictability of critical metabolic index in an initialized global marine biogeochemistry prediction system

Jong-Yeon Park, Jeonbuk National University, Department of Environment and Energy, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Jeonju, South Korea, Charles A Stock, NOAA/OAR/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, United States, John P Dunne, NOAA Geophys Fluid Dynamic, Princeton, United States, Xiaosong Yang, NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, United States and Anthony John Rosati, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, United States
Abstract:
Marine organisms and ecosystems are constantly stressed by climate variations. Predicting marine ecosystem changes using global Earth system models (ESMs) could enable communities to adapt to climate variations and contribute to long-term ecosystem resilience. In this study, we assess variability and predictability of critical metabolic index for pelagic, demersal, and mesopelagic species by using the reconstructed and predicted historical marine biogeochemistry data simulated from GFDL’s ESM. The critical metabolic index is defined by environmental oxygen supply and temperature, which represents minimal physiological requirements. We find that the critical metabolic index for mesopelagic species generally shows higher predictability compared to other species, while the predictability for pelagic species rapidly drops with longer lead times. The predictability of critical metabolic index is generally higher than that of ocean temperature, particularity in the tropics and subtropics for pelagic and demersal species. This longer predictability of critical metabolic index is evident when the metabolic index is more dominated by oxygen rather than temperature.
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