PC34C:
Near-Term Prediction of the Ocean: Physics, Biogeochemistry, and Ecosystems III Posters

Session ID#: 93536

Session Description:
Predicting near-term (seasonal to multidecadal) changes in ocean physical and biogeochemical processes and ecosystems is of interest both from a climatic perspective, for resource management, as well as understanding undergoing changes in the marine environment. Recent advances in seasonal to subseasonal (S2S) and subseasonal to decadal (S2D) predictions using data assimilation techniques in ocean and Earth system models have generated a new field of study in near-term ocean predictability. This broad and interdisciplinary topic enriches understanding of physical, chemical, and biological processes and their internal variability apart from anthropogenic forcings through integration of a wide range of observations and model simulations.

In this session we invite studies that contribute to predictions of ocean physics, biogeochemistry, and ecosystems. Both predictions in individual component of the ocean and contributions to the interplay among predictability in the physics, biogeochemistry, and ecosystems are welcome. Moreover, data assimilation and initialization strategies in facilitating initialization of the state-of-the-art Earth system models with observations, together with perfect model framework in understanding the predictability, is particularly relevant to this session.

Co-Sponsor(s):
  • OC - Ocean Change: Acidification and Hypoxia
  • OM - Ocean Modeling
  • PI - Physical-Biological Interactions
Index Terms:
Primary Chair:  Filippa Fransner, Geophysical Institute Bergen, Bergen, Norway
Co-chairs:  Hongmei Li1, Nicole S Lovenduski2 and Tatiana Ilyina1, (1)Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany(2)University of Colorado, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Boulder, CO, United States
Primary Liaison:  Filippa Fransner, Geophysical Institute Bergen, Bergen, Norway
Moderators:  Hongmei Li, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany and Filippa Fransner, Geophysical Institute Bergen, Bergen, Norway
Student Paper Review Liaison:  Hongmei Li, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

 
An Assessment of Seasonal Forecasts for the Bering Sea Cold Pool (641888)
Kelly Kearney1, Albert J Hermann1, Wei Cheng2 and Kerim Aydin3, (1)University of Washington, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, Seattle, WA, United States, (2)Univ of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States, (3)NOAA/Alaska Fisheries Science Center, WA, United States
 
Near-term Ocean Dynamics and Biogeochemical Interactions in the North-Baltic Sea System: A Model Validation (650862)
Itzel Ruvalcaba Baroni1, Elin Almroth-Rosell1, Lars Axell1, Christian Dieterich1, Matthias Gröger1,2, Jenny Hieronymus1, Irene Wåhlström1, Sam Fredriksson1 and Lars Arneborg1,3, (1)Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Oceanography Research Dept., Norrköping, Sweden, (2)Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemünde, Norrköping, Germany, (3)University of Gothenburg, Marine Sciences, Gothenburg, Sweden
 
Predictability of critical metabolic index in an initialized global marine biogeochemistry prediction system (651549)
Jong-Yeon Park, Chonbuk National University, Jeonju, South Korea, Charles A Stock, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ, United States, John P Dunne, NOAA Geophys Fluid Dynamic, Princeton, United States, Xiaosong Yang, NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, United States and Anthony John Rosati, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, United States
 
Prediction skill in the Subpolar North Atlantic and Nordic Seas in the Norwegian Climate Prediction Model (NorCPM) (645802)
Leilane G Passos1, Helene R. Langehaug2, Marius Årthun1 and Tor Eldevik1, (1)Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway, (2)Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, Bergen, Norway
 
Wind-Stress Induced Multi-Year Predictability of Subpolar North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature (645301)
Annika Reintges1, Mohammed H Bordbar2, Wonsun Park1 and Mojib Latif1,3, (1)GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Kiel, Germany, (2)Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research, Rostock, Germany, (3)University of Kiel, Kiel, Germany
 
Predictability of variations in the ocean and land carbon sinks in a multi-model framework (650484)
Tatiana Ilyina1, Hongmei Li1, Aaron Spring1, Pierre Friedlingstein2, Nicole S Lovenduski3, Laurent Bopp4, Megumi O. Chikamoto5, John P Dunne6, Jong-Yeon Park7, Roland Séférian8 and Stephen G Yeager9, (1)Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany, (2)University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4, United Kingdom, (3)University of Colorado, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Boulder, CO, United States, (4)LSCE Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Gif-Sur-Yvette Cedex, France, (5)IPRC, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI, United States, (6)NOAA Geophys Fluid Dynamic, Princeton, United States, (7)Chonbuk National University, Jeonju, South Korea, (8)Meteo-France - CNRS, CNRM, CEN, Toulouse, France, (9)NCAR, Oceanography, Boulder, CO, United States
 
Ocean Biogeochemical Predictions - Initialization and Sources of Predictability (650389)
Filippa Fransner, Geophysical Institute Bergen, Bergen, Norway, Francois Counillon, Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Centre; Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway, Ingo Bethke, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway, Jerry Tjiputra, NORCE Climate, Bergen, Norway, Annette Samuelsen, Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, Bergen, Norway, Aleksi Nummelin, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway and Are Olsen, University of Bergen, Geophysical Institute, Bergen, Norway