OysterFutures: testing a collaborative modeling process to enhance fisheries and ecosystem health

Elizabeth W North1, Michael J Wilberg2, Jeff Blair3, Jeffrey C Cornwell4, Matthew Damiano5, Rasika Gawde6, Taylor Goelz7, Robert M Jones8, Troy W Hartley9, Chris Hayes2, Raleigh R Hood10, Melanie Leigh Jackson1, Emily Nastase11, Dylan Taillie11, Jane E Thomas12 and Lisa A Wainger2, (1)University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science Horn Point Laboratory, Cambridge, MD, United States, (2)University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, Chesapeake Biological Laboratory, Solomons, United States, (3)Florida State University, FCRC Concensus Center, Tallahassee, FL, United States, (4)University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science Horn Point Laboratory, Horn Point Laboratory, Cambridge, United States, (5)University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, Chesapeake Biological Laboratory, Solomons, MD, United States, (6)University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, Horn Point Laboratory, Cambridge, MD, United States, (7)Virginia Institute of Marine Science, Gloucester Point, United States, (8)Florida State University, FCRC Concensus Center, Tallahassee, United States, (9)Virginia Institute of Marine Science, Virginia Sea Grant College Program, Gloucester Point, United States, (10)University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science Horn Point Laboratory, Cambridge, United States, (11)University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, United States, (12)University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, Integration Application Network, Cambridge, MD, United States
Abstract:
Effective natural resource management often requires broadly supported polices which are evidence-based and cost-effective. Yet many processes for making regulations and conducting restoration result in conflict among stakeholders which slows progress toward an enhanced resource and its ecosystem services. For example, the eastern oyster Crassostrea virginica fishery in Chesapeake Bay has longstanding conflicts among stakeholders, and the species has not shown substantial recovery. In this context, the objective of the Coastal SEES OysterFutures research program was to test if the Consensus Solutions process with collaborative modeling could produce restoration and management options that would enhance resource sustainability by meeting the needs of major stakeholders, aligning ecological, economic and social interests, and integrating the latest scientific understanding with local expert knowledge. Through nine facilitated workshops over two years, scientists and stakeholders worked together to build and successfully apply a novel coupled bio-physical-economic simulation model. The model evaluated the performance of management and restoration options up to 25 years into the future, and included spatially-explicit oyster population dynamics, fishery economics, water movement, larval transport, and seston and nitrogen reduction through oyster filtration. Stakeholders used the model to select options that were cost-effective and simultaneously enhanced the oyster resource, industry, and water quality, and recommended those options, along with the Consensus Solutions process, to the state management agency. This presentation will provide an overview of the Consensus Solutions process with collaborative modeling, the simulation model, the changes in participants’ attitudes toward scientific modeling, and a discussion of the potential for this process to improve natural resource sustainability, fisheries management outcomes, and ecosystem health.
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