PC31A:
Near-Term Prediction of the Ocean: Physics, Biogeochemistry, and Ecosystems I

Session ID#: 92920

Session Description:
Predicting near-term (seasonal to multidecadal) changes in ocean physical and biogeochemical processes and ecosystems is of interest both from a climatic perspective, for resource management, as well as understanding undergoing changes in the marine environment. Recent advances in seasonal to subseasonal (S2S) and subseasonal to decadal (S2D) predictions using data assimilation techniques in ocean and Earth system models have generated a new field of study in near-term ocean predictability. This broad and interdisciplinary topic enriches understanding of physical, chemical, and biological processes and their internal variability apart from anthropogenic forcings through integration of a wide range of observations and model simulations.

In this session we invite studies that contribute to predictions of ocean physics, biogeochemistry, and ecosystems. Both predictions in individual component of the ocean and contributions to the interplay among predictability in the physics, biogeochemistry, and ecosystems are welcome. Moreover, data assimilation and initialization strategies in facilitating initialization of the state-of-the-art Earth system models with observations, together with perfect model framework in understanding the predictability, is particularly relevant to this session.

Co-Sponsor(s):
  • OC - Ocean Change: Acidification and Hypoxia
  • OM - Ocean Modeling
  • PI - Physical-Biological Interactions
Index Terms:

4255 Numerical modeling [OCEANOGRAPHY: GENERAL]
4260 Ocean data assimilation and reanalysis [OCEANOGRAPHY: GENERAL]
4263 Ocean predictability and prediction [OCEANOGRAPHY: GENERAL]
4273 Physical and biogeochemical interactions [OCEANOGRAPHY: GENERAL]
Primary Chair:  Filippa Fransner, Geophysical Institute Bergen, Bergen, Norway
Co-chairs:  Hongmei Li1, Nicole S Lovenduski2 and Tatiana Ilyina1, (1)Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany(2)University of Colorado, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Boulder, CO, United States
Primary Liaison:  Filippa Fransner, Geophysical Institute Bergen, Bergen, Norway
Moderators:  Filippa Fransner, Geophysical Institute Bergen, Bergen, Norway and Hongmei Li, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
Student Paper Review Liaison:  Filippa Fransner, Geophysical Institute Bergen, Bergen, Norway

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

PC31A-01
Super model approach to reduce model bias and enhance climate prediction (655215)
Noel S Keenlyside1, Francois Counillon2, Mao-lin Shen3, Shunya Koski3, Marion Devilliers4, Alok Kumar Gupta5 and Gregory S. Duane6, (1)Geophysical Institute Bergen, Bergen, Norway, (2)Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Centre; Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway, (3)University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway, (4)Université de Bordeaux, France, (5)NORCE, Norway, (6)Univ of Colorado, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Boulder, United States
PC31A-02
Was the 2015 Subpolar North Atlantic Cold Blob Predictable? (647613)
Elizabeth Maroon, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States, Stephen G Yeager, NCAR, Oceanography, Boulder, CO, United States and Gokhan Danabasoglu, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics, Boulder, CO, United States
PC31A-03
CMIP5 Model-analog Seasonal Forecast Skill: a Metric for Model Evaluation of ENSO (653511)
Hui Ding, University of Colorado/CIRES, Boulder, United States, Matthew Newman, University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, United States, Michael A Alexander, NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, United States and Andrew Thorne Wittenberg, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, United States
PC31A-04
How important is the Equatorial Undercurrent for biogeochemistry and global climate predictions? (654208)
Julius Johannes Marian Busecke1, Laure Resplandy1 and John P Dunne2, (1)Princeton University, Department of Geosciences, Princeton, NJ, United States, (2)NOAA Geophys Fluid Dynamic, Princeton, United States
PC31A-05
Potential predictability of key marine biogeochemical fields: what can be learnt from cross-generation model comparison ? (645318)
Roland Seferian, CNRM (Météo-France/CNRS), Toulouse, France, Emilia Sanchez-Gomez, CECI/CERFACS, Toulouse, France and Lauriane Batté, CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France
PC31A-06
Potential Predictability Limits of the Global Carbon Cycle (650243)
Aaron Spring and Tatiana Ilyina, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
PC31A-07
Seasonal-to-interannual prediction of U.S. coastal marine ecosystems: Forecast methods, mechanisms of predictability, and priority developments (647672)
Michael Jacox, NOAA Southwest Fisheries Science Center, La Jolla, CA, United States, Michael A Alexander, NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, United States, Samantha Siedlecki, University of Connecticut, Department of Marine Sciences, Groton, United States, Ke Chen, Woods Hole Oceanographic Inst, Woods Hole, United States, Young-Oh Kwon, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, United States, Stephanie Brodie, University of New South Wales, School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, Monterey, United States, Ivonne Ortiz, University of Washington, JISAO, Seattle, WA, United States, Desiree Tommasi, Princeton University, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Princeton, NJ, United States, Matthew J Widlansky, University of Hawaii at Manoa, CIMAR, Honolulu, United States, Daniel Barrie, NOAA Climate Program Office, Silver Spring, MD, United States, Antonietta Capotondi, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, Boulder, United States, Wei Cheng, Univ of Washington, Seattle, United States, Emanuele Di Lorenzo, Georgia Inst Tech, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Atlanta, GA, United States, Christopher A Edwards, University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, CA, United States, Jerome Fiechter, University of California Santa Cruz, Ocean Sciences, Santa Cruz, United States, Paula Sue Fratantoni, NOAA NMFS, Northeast Fisheries Science Center, Woods Hole, MA, United States, Elliott L. Hazen, NOAA Southwest Fisheries Science Center, Environmental Research Division, Monterey, United States, Albert J Hermann, University of Washington, Cooperative Institute for Climate, Ocean, and Ecosystem Studies, Seattle, United States, Arun Kumar, NOAA/NCEP, College Park, MD, United States, Arthur J Miller, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, United States, Douglas Pirhalla, National Ocean Service, Silver Spring, MD, United States, Mercedes Pozo Buil, Georgia Institute of Technology Main Campus, School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Atlanta, United States, Sulagna Ray, Princeton University, Program in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Princeton, NJ, United States, Scott C Sheridan, Kent State University Kent Campus, Kent, OH, United States, Aneesh Subramanian, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, United States, Philip R Thompson, JIMAR, University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa, Honolulu, United States, Lesley H Thorne, Stony Brook University, School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook, NY, United States, H Annamalai, University of Hawai’i at Mānoa, International Pacific Research Center, Honolulu, United States, Steven J. Bograd, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Southwest Fisheries Science Center, Monterey, United States, Roger Griffis, NOAA, National Marine Fisheries Service, Silver Spring, MD, United States, Hyemi Kim, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY, United States, Annarita Mariotti, OSTP, Washington D.C., DC, United States, Mark A Merrifield, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, United States and Ryan R Rykaczewski, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC, United States
PC31A-08
Winter influences on Summer Hypoxia Variability (651425)
Samantha Siedlecki, University of Connecticut, Department of Marine Sciences, Groton, United States, Parker MacCready, University of Washington Seattle Campus, School of Oceanography, Seattle, United States, Ryan M McCabe, University of Washington, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, Seattle, WA, United States, Neil Banas, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, United Kingdom, Kristen A Davis, University of California Irvine, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Irvine, United States, Sarah N Giddings, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States, Burke R Hales, Oregon State Univ, Corvallis, OR, United States, Jack A Barth, Oregon State University, Marine Studies Initiative, Corvallis, OR, United States and Scott Michael Durski, Oregon State University, Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, Corvallis, United States
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