Application of the Extreme Value Analysis in Evaluation of Space Weather Impacts on Critical Infrastructure at High Latitudes

Abstract:

Space weather disturbances have a range of impacts on different technologies including those regarded as critical for modern society, i.e. communication, navigation, and electric power supply. Concern that extreme space weather conditions could have a detrimental effect on a vulnerable technology has prompted different organizations to include space weather effects in the list of hazards to modern society. Among them is the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), which requires space weather information to manage the safe operation of aircraft, and the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC), which has developed new standards for electric power suppliers to be able to withstand the extreme space weather conditions.

The above reasons have prompted the need for research and applications in the area of extreme space weather.

The presented results are related to the application of extreme value theory to assess the level of impacts from extreme space weather events on two technologies of critical importance: HF communication widely used by the aviation in the high Arctic; and to electric power transmission.

In the first set of results, extreme value theory is used to estimate the level of the HF signal absorption in high latitude area (polar cap absorption). To do it, the extreme value distribution has been applied to solar energetic protons, recorded by HEO mission in 1998-2008 in three energy channels, 8.5-35 MeV, 16-40 MeV, 27-45 MeV, to estimate one in 4 solar cycles (44 years) extreme proton event. To make an assessment of the radio signal degradation caused by this event, the D-RAP model was applied to estimate the peak value of the signal absorption and its largest duration above threshold levels. The results can be used for proper planning of communication during long-duration cross-polar flights.

The second set of results are related to the evaluation of extreme geomagnetic variations and related geomagnetically induced currents in power grids. This time, the extreme value theory has been applied to 43 years (1973-2015) of geomagnetic data recorded at Canadian geomagnetic observatories to estimate one in 100 years magnetic storm. The derived values were used to model the response of the Canadian power grids to extreme geomagnetic conditions.