Modeling and Analysis of Extreme Geomagnetically Induced Currents

Abstract:

Space weather has been a longstanding and increasingly important topic because the phenomenon can disrupt operation of critical infrastructure. Ground-based electrically conducting technologies are vulnerable to geomagnetically induced currents (GICs), a natural space weather hazard. The flow of GICs on the ground can impact key technological assets, including power grids, oil and gas pipelines, and communication networks. This highlights the importance of better understanding and being prepared for space weather events, and has sparked renewed interest in extreme space weather. However, understanding extreme events remains a major challenge for the science community. In this study, the key science challenges relevant to our understanding of extreme GICs are reviewed and results from past modeling and data analysis investigations are presented. In addition, we present the first comparison involving ionospheric currents derived from the Assimilative Mapping of Ionospheric Electrodynamics (AMIE) and the horizontal surface geomagnetic field rate of change, dB/dt, a proxy for GICs. Overall, the results are encouraging and demonstrate that AMIE has the potential to enhance our understanding of the development and evolution of dynamic currents that cause extreme GICs. However, further work is required to improve the GIC specification.