The Solar Drivers of Space Weather: What Are the Key Issues for Improving Short to Medium Range Forecasting?
The Solar Drivers of Space Weather: What Are the Key Issues for Improving Short to Medium Range Forecasting?
Friday, 15 February 2019: 09:45
Fountain I/II (Westin Pasadena)
Abstract:
Our scientific understanding of the solar drivers of Space Weather (SpW), i.e. Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs), flares, and solar energetic particles (SEPs), has improved considerably in the last 20+ years thanks to a plethora of space missions and modeling advances. Yet, there has been relatively little progress in forecasting the geo-effectiveness of a given CME and associated phenomena. Why is that? What are the issues that are holding back progress in short to medium-term forecasting (up to 7 days) of Space Weather?
In this talk, I review the scientific advances, identify the key open questions relevant to SpW forecasting, and offer possible mitigation strategies for consideration.