Development of a real-time prediction system of CME arrival and magnetic field with SUSANOO-CME MHD simulation
Development of a real-time prediction system of CME arrival and magnetic field with SUSANOO-CME MHD simulation
Friday, 15 February 2019: 09:25
Fountain I/II (Westin Pasadena)
Abstract:
The predictions of CME arrival to the Earth and the southward magnetic field brought by the CMEs are one of crucial tasks for space weather forecast.
We have developed a MHD simulation capable of reproducing the interplanetary propagation of multiple CMEs with internal magnetic flux rope (Shiota & Kataoka 2016) called as SUSANOO-CME. The simulation solves propagation of solar wind and CMEs in the inner heliosphere from 25 solar radii where all the balk flow exceeds fast mode speed. The information of solar wind and CME is specified at the inner boundary with empirical and analytical models using real-time ofservations of the Sun and the corona.
We are building a system to predict the arrival and the magnetic field of the CMEs utilizing the SUSANOO-CME with the real-time solar observations. We will report the current status of the development of our system and demonstrate a prediction using the past observation on early September of 2017.
We have developed a MHD simulation capable of reproducing the interplanetary propagation of multiple CMEs with internal magnetic flux rope (Shiota & Kataoka 2016) called as SUSANOO-CME. The simulation solves propagation of solar wind and CMEs in the inner heliosphere from 25 solar radii where all the balk flow exceeds fast mode speed. The information of solar wind and CME is specified at the inner boundary with empirical and analytical models using real-time ofservations of the Sun and the corona.
We are building a system to predict the arrival and the magnetic field of the CMEs utilizing the SUSANOO-CME with the real-time solar observations. We will report the current status of the development of our system and demonstrate a prediction using the past observation on early September of 2017.