Forecasting Extreme Space Weather Events with the Operational Geospace Model

Abstract:

The operational Geospace model is a global magnetosphere model that has been running in real-time on the National Weather Service’s super computers since October 2016. The output from the Geospace model includes both global and regional predictions for ground and space-based space weather parameters, and the guidance provided by this physics-based based model is used by forecasters at NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) to inform their official space weather forecasts. In addition, the output from the Geospace model can be used to drive other model such as the Regional Geoelectric model of predicted ground electric fields and ionospheric models. In this presentation, we focus on the Geospace model performance during moderate to extreme periods of activity. We assess both the global and regional model predictions and discuss how well the model forecasts all phases of a geomagnetic storm. Using these results, we identity areas where improvements to the models and the current operational products could be made to more fully address the needs of SWPC customers. We conclude with some exciting advancements to our space weather forecasting capabilities including new radiation belt model output and anticipated improvements associated with our next upgrade to a high-resolution version of the Geospace model.