The Scientific Challenge of Space Weather Forecasting

Abstract:

The first National Space Weather Program Strategic Plan was published over 20 years ago (1995), with an overarching goal to achieve “an active, synergistic, interagency system to provide timely, accurate, and reliable space environment observations, specifications, and forecasts.” Scientific agencies were involved in the plan, such as NASA, NSF and NOAA, to facilitate the application of scientific knowledge for the benefit of society. Over these past 20 years, observational and modeling capabilities have advanced substantially that can support the goals of space weather specification (nowcast) and forecast. The US operational agency responsible for forecasts, NOAA, has implemented advanced forecasting capabilities. Yet, fundamental questions remain regarding scientific aspects of predicting space weather. What are the dominant physical factors that limit space weather prediction for the different domains – solar, heliosphere and geospace? What observational resources will provide maximum benefit towards accurate prediction? What limits the capabilities of first-principles models to generate accurate forecasts? What are the most successful ensemble forecasting approaches to provide reliable forecast uncertainties? How will machine learning approaches influence how space weather prediction is implemented? In this talk, we discuss our expectations of how this Chapman Conference will address these questions and others, and may lead to new research directions that will advance space weather forecasting as a scientific discipline.