Space Weather Forecasting as a Scientific Endeavor: A Practitioner's Perspective.

Abstract:

"When the forecaster possesses scientific insight...forecasting can become truly scientific. The data, as well as the objective guidance, are interpreted through the application of that knowledge. If the data do not fit a particular model, the issue becomes one of trying to understand why they do not fit and attempting to modify that model to fit the current observations. When this is possible, and it is obvious that it will not always be so (our understanding is incomplete and imperfect), it becomes possible to depart from objective guidance and rules of thumb with some confidence that the departure will be successful. Forecasting experience allows a continuing growth of scientific understanding when forecasting is based on the scientific method"

Charles Doswell III, Maddox, R, Paper 6.2 in Preprints, 11th Conf.Weather Forecasting and Analysis (17-20 June 1986), Kansas City, MO,Amer. Meteor. Soc., 177-182.

Is space weather forecasting a scientific endeavor, operational implementation, or sorcery? Do forecasters see themselves as scientists or something else? Using Doswell's paper as a backdrop, I will offer one forecaster's perspective. Examples of forecasts for which the current knowledge and state of the art fell short will be provided. I will also examine the evolving role of the terrestrial weather forecaster and discuss implications for space weather forecasters, researchers, and the people they serve.