SM31A-4152:
In-Progress flare Forecasting of the Peak and Fall of X-Ray Flares
Wednesday, 17 December 2014
K S Balasubramaniam, Air Force Research Laboratory Kirtland AFB, Kirtland AFB, NM, United States and Lisa M Winter, Atmospheric and Environmental Research Inc. Superior, Superior, CO, United States
Abstract:
In-progress flare forecasting aims to predict the properties of an eminent flare, given only the first few observations during the initial rise phase. We present initial stages of a new model to forecast the rise and fall times and the peak flux level of X-ray flares. Our model is based upon a statistical analysis of the properties of M- and X- class flares occurring over the past three solar cycles. In a similar statistical analysis to the automated method of Aschwanden & Freeland (2012), we analyze the 1-min GOES X-ray data, detecting flares and characterizing the shape of the rising flare. We also determine the characteristics of the fall from peak and characterize the X-ray background, using techniques similar to those presented in Hock, Woodraska, and Woods (2013). Our analysis includes both the softer (1-8 Angstrom) and harder (0.5-4 Angstrom) energy X-ray channels from observations from 1986-present.
